Methods for investigating recurrence phenomena in the Earth system

Speaker: Norbert Marwarn, PIK Potsdam

Recurrence is a ubiquitous and fundamental feature in many real world processes. Here, I will focus on recurrence in the system Earth, where it is present at many scales in time and space, such as the rock cycle, activity of an active geyser, celestial mechanics, repeating patterns in a landscape, cycles of glaciation, epochs of geomagnetic polarity, or alternating sediment layers. The study of recurrence properties (such as frequency analysis) can provide deeper insights into the dynamical processes in general. A rather novel approach for the study of recurrences is the so-called recurrence plot and its quantification, rooted in the theory of dynamical systems. In this talk, I will present the basic concept and the major extensions applicable to various research questions. Discussed examples include the temporal change of recurrence properties for identification of regime shifts in climate; spatio-temporal recurrences for classification of landuse dynamics; and bivariate extensions for synchronization/coupling analysis for time scale alignment of palaeoclimate observations. Methodological and numerical Challenges and pitfalls will also be discussed.